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2021 NFL team win/loss projections 1.0

I know, some folks don't like win/loss projections in May, or at all, but I don't care. I love it. I tend to emphasize how difficult a teams road games are, and more specifically, out of division road games. Especially with fans (hopefully!) back in the stands. Here is my first look at win totals following the draft and free agency.

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1. ARIZONA CARDINALS

In a very tough division, and with out of division road games against the Browns, Titans, and Cowboys, this sets up as a difficult schedule for the Cards. This could be a make or break season for Kliff Kingsbury.

Record: 8-9

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2. ATLANTA FALCONS

With a new head coach and plenty of talent on offense how will the Falcons navigate their schedule? They will need Arthur Smith to be good and improvement from the defense. A tough out of division road schedule includes the Giants, Dolphins, Saints, Cowboys, 49ers, and Bills.

Record: 9-8

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3. BALTIMORE RAVENS

The Ravens are a winning franchise with good coaching and front office. The defense should be solid as always, but I am still not sold on Lamar Jackson as a passer. And in the playoffs teams have figured how to control the offense. On paper this looks like a difficult schedule.

Record: 10-7


4. BUFFALO BILLS

This team has plenty of talent and good coaching. Josh Allen is a beast and has good weapons around him. The schedule sets up well for the Bills with a few tough out of division road games including the Chiefs, Titans, Saints, and Bucs.

Record: 12-5

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5. CAROLINA PANTHERS

There is good talent on this offense if McCaffrey is healthy. Everything hinges on Sam Darnold being the QB most thought he could be coming out of USC. The first half of the schedule appears easier than the second half. Tough out of division road games include the Giants, Cowboys, Cardinals, Dolphins, and Bills.

Record: 7-10

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6. CHICAGO BEARS

I think the Bears are much better at QB with Andy Dalton, and when/if Justin Fields takes over. The defense is still good but not as good as a couple years ago. While their divison is manageable, their is a tough out of divison slate including at Rams, Browns, Raiders, Bucs, Steelers, and Seahawks (yikes!).

This team may be better but will the record reflect that?

Record: 7-10

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7. CINCINNATI BENGALS

I'm a big Joe Burrow fan and there is some talent on this offense. The two main question marks are the defense and head coach Zac Taylor. If Taylor can coach and Burrow is healthy the Bengals will improve. On paper the schedule looks difficult with a tough division and out of division road games including the Bears, Raiders, and Broncos.

Record: 7-10

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8. CLEVELAND BROWNS

While I'm not the biggest Baker Mayfield fan in the world, the Browns have a strong running game, a talented roster, and a good head coach. With a tough division and out of division road games at the Chiefs, Vikings, Chargers, Patriots, and Packers will the record be good?

Record: 10-7

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9. DALLAS COWBOYS

The so-called 'experts' say the Cowboys schedule is one of the easiest. With tough road games against the Bucs, Chargers, Patriots, Vikings,  Saints, and Chiefs (are you kidding me?!) I have to disagree! That's a gauntlet! But, if the Boys stay healthy(big if?), I see a solid season ahead.

Record: 12-5

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10. DENVER BRONCOS

The Broncos can't afford to go 0-for-September again. And with this early schedule they shouldn't. There is good talent on this offense, and if they can get good QB play, big if, this could be a solid season. Out of division road games include the Giants, Steelers, Browns, and Cowboys. And this is no easy division to navigate.

Record: 9-8

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11. DETROIT LIONS

Well, not much talent in Detroit. And the head coach is a big question mark. Is there any hope here at all? Hmmm, don't think so. Sorry Lions fans.

Record: 3-14

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12, GREEN BAY PACKERS

Well, it all depends on Aaron Rodgers being the QB. I think he will be. Good talent on the roster and a great QB means wins. A tough out of division road schedule includes the Saints, 49ers, Cardinals, Chiefs, and Ravens.

Record: 12-5

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13. HOUSTON TEXANS

Where do I start? No talent. Very questionable head coach. Bad front office. The Deshaun Watson debacle. Only won 4 games with Watson. Super Bowl contender? Yeah, prob not. More like, who is the number one pick in 2022?

Record: 2-15

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14. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Loaded roster that only needs a re-invented Carson Wentz. Could that happen? Yes. Or, no. It is a pretty bad division and with only a few tough out of division road games including the Dolphins, Ravens, 49ers, and Cardinals this could be a good season if Wentz delivers.

Record: 10-7

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15. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

This all comes down to Urban Meyer for me. Trevor Lawrence is the real deal, and there is some talent on the offense. The defense could be troublesome, though. If Meyer translates to the pro game, the Jags could be surprising in year 1.

Record: 5-12

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16. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

The Chiefs went big after their biggest weakness in the offseason and draft. Their offensive line. And, with Patrick Mahomes at QB and Andy Reid designing plays, this team will be hard to beat. There are a few speed bumps to watch out for on the road out of division. Namely the Ravens, WFT, and Titans. All of these in the first half of the schedule.

Record: 13-4

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17. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

The Raiders continue to confound with their offseason moves and drafting. Is Jon Gruden the right man for the job? There are a lot of holes on this roster. In a division with the Chiefs and the up and coming Chargers, some tough out of division road games include the Steelers, Giants, Cowboys, Browns, and Colts.

Record: 6-11

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18. L.A. CHARGERS

The Chargers got the QB right. Now, do they have the head coach right? The first half of the schedule looks tough but the second half sets up for a possible surge for the Bolts. (Shout out to dem Bates boys!)

Record: 10-7

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19.  L.A. RAMS

This team is loaded and made a huge upgrade at QB with Matt Stafford. The NFC West is probably the toughest division in the league and the out of divison road slate looks tough with the Colts, Giants, Packers, Vikings, and Ravens.

Record: 11-6

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20. MIAMI DOLPHINS

I really like the Dolphins coach and defense. They improved their offensive weapons in the draft and it's all on Tua's shoulders now. Is he the real deal? Some challenging out of division road games includes the Raiders, Bucs, Saints, and Titans.

Record: 9-8

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21. MINNESOTA VIKINGS

The Vikings have really good talent on offense and they addressed the O-line in the draft and free agency. If the defense can improve some, this is a good team. Tough out of division road games include the Cardinals, Ravens, Chargers, and 49ers.

Record: 9-8

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22. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Was it just me or did it look like Belichick needed Tom Brady more than Brady needed him? We'll see this year with opt-outs back and Mac Jones, hopefully, replacing awful Cam Newton. The Patriots have a workable schedule with tough out of division road games at the Chargers, Falcons, and Colts.

Record: 11-6

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23. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

The Saints still have a strong roster, albeit, without Drew Brees. Is there a chance the offense could be more dynamic with a QB that can actually throw it deep? We'll see, a stronger armed QB doesn't necessarily mean a better QB. Some difficult out of division road games include the Patriots, WFT, Seahawks, and Titans.

Record: 9-8

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24. NEW YORK GIANTS

The Giants seem to have gotten right at head coach. Now, how about at QB? Daniel Jones has been given a lot of weapons, is he ready to take the next step? Some difficult out of division road games include the Saints, Chiefs, Bucs, Dolphins, Chargers, and Bears.

Record: 8-9

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25. NEW YORK JETS

I am not yet sold on the Zach Wilson experiment. For Jets fans sake, I hope that I am wrong. With a rookie head coach in a very well coached division it could be a long season for the Jets. Tough out of division road games include the Broncos, and Colts.

Record: 4-13

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26. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

This roster has a lot of holes and I still for the life of me can't figure out why they didn't draft a QB. And, nothing personal, but the new head coach seems a little bit over his skis. Don't see many wins this year with tough road games out of division against the Falcons, Raiders, and Broncos.

Record: 3-14

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27. PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Does Big Ben have enough left in the tank? That's a big question mark. Mike Tomlin never has losing seasons, so we should be able to expect at least mediocrity. Tough out of division road games include the Bills, Packers, Chargers, Vikings, and Chiefs.

Record: 9-8

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28. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

This team is loaded and Shanahan is as good as it gets on the offensive side. Injuries killed them last year so that should even out. Will Trey Lance take over the QB role? We'll see. Again, this is arguably the toughest division in the league. Tough out of division road games include the Bears, Seahawks, and Titans.

Record: 11-6

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29. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

A lot of offseason turmoil for the Seahawks. Is Russ happy now? Not so sure. There are some holes in the roster and the West is a very strong division. Difficult out of division road games include the Colts, Vikings, Steelers, Packers, and WFT.

Record:  9-8

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30. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

A loaded roster, as long as Brady doesn't hit the old man wall, looks great on paper. They are literally favored to win ALL of their games and it's hard to see the Bucs struggling with the division. Tough out of division road games include the Rams, Patriots, WFT, and Colts.

Record: 14-3

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31. TENNESSEE TITANS

The Titans have a solid roster and coaching. I still think their ceiling is limited by Ryan Tannehill. The division is weak, though. Tough out of division road games include the Seahawks, Rams, and Steelers.

Record: 10-7

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32. WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM

The 'Skins have a very good defense and a good coach. There is some talent on offense, but why not draft a QB? That will ultimately limit their ceiling this season. Tough out of division road games include the Bills, Falcons, Packers, Broncos, and Raiders.

Record: 9-8

Final record predictions: Text
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